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The key factors that
determine the size of a departure fee are:
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the entry price
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the
rate at which the percentage fee increases
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the
minimum percentage fee level
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the
maximum percentage fee level at
which it stops increasing
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the
eventual period of occupancy
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the
size of any capital gain
that accrues
during the period of occupancy
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the
basis for the apportionment of any such capital gain
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the
size of any administration fee that
may be payable.
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The
best way to analyse how a particular
departure fee structure works is to calculate what the financial
outcome would be in a range of possible scenarios.
To do this properly you need to estimate the rate at which
you think the market price
of the property will increase
in future years. This obviously involves
some guesswork, but as a general proposition it is probably reasonable
to assume that there will be a strong positive correlation
between movements in the market price of retirement
village properties and
the broader residential property market.
There is also a strong argument that demographic changes such as
the impending retirement of the "baby boomers" and generally
increasing life expectancies will create continuing demand for housing
that meets the requirements of seniors.
We
suggest that you create a table and work out
what the following amounts would be after say 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10,
15, 20 and 25 years, using your best estimate of the likely growth
rate:
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the
market price of the unit
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the
accrued capital gain (1 minus
the entry price)
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the
accrued departure fee
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the
proceeds, refund or exit entitlement you
could expect to receive if you
permanently vacated
the premises (1 minus 3)
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the
overall nominal gain or loss that would result from the
transaction (4 minus the entry price).
The
above calculations will help you understand:
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how
the market price of the unit
may increase over time as capital gains
accrue
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how
the departure fee may increase
over time
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how
much you may be entitled to receive
when you permanently vacate the
premises
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whether
you are likely to make an overall gain or loss on the transaction.
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We also suggest that
you repeat the exercise using a higher and a
lower assumed growth rate to see how sensitive the results are to
changes in the growth rate. Repeating
the exercise for alternative units will make it much easier to make
useful comparisons.
Even
then it is difficult to really understand what some of the
numbers mean because of the time value of money. Put
simply, a dollar tomorrow is worth less than
a dollar today. Ideally, after working
out what the departure fee would be in a range of possible scenarios,
you should calculate the "present value" of each amount by discounting
it using an appropriate discount rate
so it reflects the real cost of the fee measured in today's dollars.
Calculating the present values will:
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help you understand
the real cost of the departure fee
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illustrate how
the real cost of the departure fee can vary depending on the
period of occupancy and the growth rate
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help facilitate
"apples and apples" comparisons of alternative entry
price and departure fee combinations that may be offered in
relation to a particular unit
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help facilitate
"apples and apples" comparisons of
alternative units and villages, even if they have different
entry prices and departure fee structures.
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Need Help?
Math
is not everyone's cup of tea, so if you want help or would like
to save a lot of time doing the above calculations, you
can click here to have these calculations done for you on-line
for a cost of approximately $30. Please note; this is a third-party
service and we take no responsibility for the information that you
may receive.
The service calculatea the following amounts
for you for each of years 1 through 25
using a growth rate that you nominate:
-
the
market price of the unit at the end
of the year
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the
accrued capital gain at the
end of the year (1 minus the entry price)
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the
accrued departure fee at the
end of the year
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the
present value of the above departure
fee, using a discount rate that you nominate or we can
suggest
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the
present value of the above departure
fee expressed as a quarterly amount spread
over the relevant period of occupancy
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the
proceeds, refund or exit entitlement
you could expect to receive if you
permanently vacated
the premises (1 minus 3)
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the
overall nominal gain or loss that would result from the
transaction (6
minus the entry price)
-
the annual rate
of return generated by the investment.
The results (200 calculations)
are presented in a table and a series of graphs so they are easy
to interpret, understand and compare.
[Click
here to see an example of the table and graphs]
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